* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 08/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 32 40 45 48 50 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 18 30 29 19 13 14 6 6 11 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 335 316 293 298 303 274 274 218 238 255 216 202 234 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 31.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 169 170 170 170 171 171 172 172 153 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 146 147 151 164 145 146 147 148 146 128 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 8 6 10 6 10 3 7 3 6 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 62 65 66 62 61 63 62 58 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -18 -30 -68 -54 -7 -66 -31 -34 -20 -13 16 -1 200 MB DIV -10 18 33 37 2 29 -11 44 39 11 -25 38 -2 700-850 TADV 2 6 4 5 11 9 19 16 7 12 -5 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 28 7 -22 -51 -103 -132 -160 -211 -301 -293 -123 52 155 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.8 32.6 33.2 33.8 33.9 33.6 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 93.7 93.3 92.9 92.5 91.0 89.5 87.9 86.0 83.3 80.4 77.7 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 10 13 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 30 16 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 25 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 20. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.5 93.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 08/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.0% 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 4.0% 12.6% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 4.2% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 08/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 08/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 32 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 28 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 21 22 22 22 22 25 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT