* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 05/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 35 35 38 40 43 45 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 35 35 38 40 43 45 47 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 16 4 5 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 1 0 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 231 243 248 70 64 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.7 24.4 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 97 95 94 100 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 84 83 82 87 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -57.7 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 57 56 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -56 -61 -58 -23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 13 -14 -37 -61 -21 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 2 2 -8 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 975 910 894 882 983 1182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.2 68.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.4% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 05/20/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 35 35 38 40 43 45 47 48 50 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 31 31 34 36 39 41 43 44 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 25 28 30 33 35 37 38 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 19 21 24 26 28 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT