* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 05/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 34 35 38 37 34 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 34 35 38 37 34 30 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 28 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 26 19 12 5 2 14 36 42 59 60 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 -2 2 1 7 13 24 23 16 18 SHEAR DIR 259 248 239 224 220 56 193 256 231 228 253 293 323 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.4 23.9 22.6 21.5 20.8 14.4 11.9 12.1 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 106 102 101 98 93 93 91 77 74 74 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 94 91 89 86 85 91 88 74 72 73 74 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 -57.6 -58.0 -58.1 -57.6 -56.0 -55.0 -54.4 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 58 58 54 50 52 44 56 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 5 8 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -43 -26 -36 -53 -51 -20 70 87 155 44 -33 -15 200 MB DIV 4 8 36 27 0 -37 -4 11 8 54 23 -17 -32 700-850 TADV 8 10 11 7 5 -2 -26 -65 -67 -59 49 3 37 LAND (KM) 713 753 863 977 976 903 1059 1191 1115 1328 887 14 -141 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 31.5 33.0 34.5 37.6 44.5 52.1 52.4 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.8 68.8 68.5 68.3 67.4 64.8 58.0 47.4 36.2 23.3 9.8 -0.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 11 19 40 49 60 47 41 42 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -6. -16. -28. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 17. 14. 10. -1. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.9 68.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 05/20/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 32 34 35 38 37 34 30 19 DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 29 31 32 35 34 31 27 16 DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 25 26 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT