* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 05/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 35 37 40 38 33 26 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 35 37 40 38 33 26 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 26 30 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 30 24 19 3 5 18 28 42 60 54 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 4 0 7 21 27 20 21 18 SHEAR DIR 257 258 248 238 226 214 102 285 236 238 290 324 338 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.6 23.8 22.3 22.4 20.0 13.1 12.8 13.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 108 105 102 97 91 97 88 75 75 75 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 96 93 90 85 83 95 85 73 73 73 103 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.4 -57.6 -57.7 -57.7 -58.1 -58.0 -58.0 -55.6 -54.8 -54.9 -56.0 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 59 57 59 54 47 48 55 59 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -55 -42 -37 -57 -76 -30 52 151 129 5 -24 55 200 MB DIV 16 10 -8 40 29 -31 5 32 5 26 15 -23 -26 700-850 TADV 0 8 9 10 5 3 -8 -39 -113 19 80 40 -39 LAND (KM) 769 781 869 986 996 894 999 1095 985 1406 683 212 16 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 27.3 28.4 29.5 31.5 33.2 34.9 38.7 46.2 50.7 47.0 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 67.6 67.9 68.0 67.9 67.5 65.4 59.3 47.9 34.4 19.9 7.1 -0.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 11 11 17 39 57 62 46 46 40 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -6. -17. -28. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 20. 18. 13. 6. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.0 66.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 05/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 05/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 29 31 35 37 40 38 33 26 16 DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 27 31 33 36 34 29 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 25 27 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT