* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 05/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 41 41 42 38 34 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 41 41 42 38 34 24 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 20 22 26 29 31 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 38 37 32 24 13 5 4 23 37 46 58 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 3 -2 -2 -1 11 25 24 25 18 SHEAR DIR 262 256 257 249 234 223 32 238 260 227 248 285 318 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.4 23.0 23.1 20.2 17.6 11.4 11.9 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 109 108 106 100 92 97 88 82 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 96 95 94 88 81 90 86 79 72 72 72 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.4 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -57.9 -58.0 -58.2 -57.1 -55.4 -54.6 -54.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 59 59 57 56 51 47 52 60 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 6 8 10 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -46 -55 -42 -37 -66 -45 -21 71 146 106 -17 -69 200 MB DIV 12 15 3 9 41 -6 1 9 9 38 35 15 -18 700-850 TADV 1 0 5 6 9 0 2 -35 -68 -18 8 77 26 LAND (KM) 792 773 815 901 1018 971 969 1129 1206 1049 1435 455 21 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.0 26.6 27.5 28.6 30.5 32.2 33.4 35.5 40.8 49.3 53.2 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.7 67.2 67.5 67.5 67.3 66.2 63.0 54.8 42.9 30.2 16.8 5.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 10 10 10 10 24 46 59 56 39 39 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 879 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -6. -15. -26. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 4. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 21. 21. 22. 18. 14. 4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.8 65.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 05/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 05/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 05/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 30 34 40 41 41 42 38 34 24 DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 36 37 37 38 34 30 20 DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 30 31 31 32 28 24 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT