* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902019 05/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 31 28 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 31 28 23 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 18 16 16 17 19 23 27 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 42 42 43 36 20 8 6 12 18 41 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 0 3 3 0 2 14 20 22 24 SHEAR DIR 264 256 255 258 252 228 191 86 316 262 232 255 289 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.1 24.5 23.2 22.5 19.4 16.8 12.4 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 118 114 111 106 101 94 96 86 80 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 103 101 99 94 89 85 91 83 77 73 73 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.8 -56.6 -56.7 -57.0 -57.4 -58.2 -58.1 -58.5 -56.6 -55.7 -55.3 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 61 63 61 62 56 48 46 55 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -26 -30 -48 -38 -49 -74 -37 0 79 143 36 -3 200 MB DIV 15 29 28 15 15 25 -9 31 30 13 37 10 4 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 7 7 4 3 0 -22 -71 16 6 44 LAND (KM) 516 540 596 660 769 1015 1034 1099 1203 1196 1203 1213 192 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.4 28.5 30.5 32.2 33.5 36.1 42.2 48.6 49.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.2 68.1 68.1 68.0 67.2 66.5 64.7 60.2 50.6 39.3 26.5 10.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 10 11 11 14 31 48 56 54 54 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 8. 3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.0 68.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902019 INVEST 05/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902019 INVEST 05/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902019 INVEST 05/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 31 28 23 DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 25 27 27 27 28 28 25 20 DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 21 21 22 22 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT