* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 09/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 47 51 56 58 58 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 47 51 56 58 58 60 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 45 51 60 67 71 72 69 64 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 20 18 17 14 14 27 33 19 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 62 42 13 9 6 352 344 275 255 247 242 285 334 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.4 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 129 127 130 130 130 128 123 122 107 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 106 104 100 107 111 115 115 114 111 92 83 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -57.3 -57.9 -57.9 -57.5 -56.8 -57.2 -57.5 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 51 53 58 59 47 41 39 42 39 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 19 17 17 17 17 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 90 70 63 67 60 95 99 133 157 114 -17 -73 200 MB DIV -7 8 16 -4 0 -8 28 2 -2 -6 -14 -1 -36 700-850 TADV 0 2 -1 0 6 3 1 -4 -4 16 36 20 4 LAND (KM) 1622 1596 1558 1526 1510 1577 1721 1930 2184 2120 2014 1876 1692 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.2 32.3 31.1 29.9 31.0 35.2 38.9 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.7 47.3 47.7 47.9 47.4 45.7 43.3 40.1 35.7 32.6 32.7 33.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 3 0 6 10 14 16 22 23 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -3. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 21. 23. 23. 25. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.1 46.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.0% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 09/23/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 44 47 51 56 58 58 60 63 63 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 44 48 53 55 55 57 60 60 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 39 43 48 50 50 52 55 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 34 39 41 41 43 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT