* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 09/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 49 51 56 59 62 66 71 73 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 49 51 56 59 62 66 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 59 68 75 78 77 74 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 19 21 14 21 17 32 25 14 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -3 -4 -2 -7 -5 -5 -1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 75 61 36 15 7 6 351 300 259 240 240 202 351 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 129 128 129 129 130 131 130 127 125 110 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 105 104 103 104 108 113 116 119 117 98 92 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -57.0 -57.5 -57.9 -57.7 -56.8 -56.3 -57.1 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 49 51 56 62 56 47 39 40 44 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 18 17 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 112 93 69 60 56 64 102 122 160 209 101 9 200 MB DIV -25 -4 5 6 -4 8 2 35 1 23 -1 3 -49 700-850 TADV 4 0 1 -1 0 7 1 -3 -7 -5 4 20 -9 LAND (KM) 1642 1623 1612 1577 1558 1539 1628 1786 2034 2232 2068 1748 1303 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.2 33.3 33.5 32.9 31.9 30.5 30.5 34.3 39.1 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.9 46.5 46.9 47.4 47.7 47.6 46.7 45.0 42.2 37.9 33.7 34.3 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 2 3 6 12 15 23 27 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 9 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 21. 24. 27. 31. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.0 45.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.6% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.9% 2.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 09/23/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 44 47 49 51 56 59 62 66 71 73 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 44 46 51 54 57 61 66 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 38 40 45 48 51 55 60 62 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 32 37 40 43 47 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT