* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 09/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 47 49 51 54 59 69 85 90 89 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 47 49 51 54 59 69 85 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 47 51 56 65 79 90 85 79 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 16 17 14 18 21 18 16 13 38 23 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -3 -9 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 135 78 44 31 13 9 1 337 274 250 220 279 14 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.7 25.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 132 131 130 130 130 131 130 126 114 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 106 108 109 107 107 109 111 113 116 116 104 129 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -56.3 -57.2 -57.9 -58.1 -57.7 -56.6 -57.1 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 1.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 48 46 54 58 62 50 43 43 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 19 19 17 18 18 25 35 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 117 114 106 87 69 70 45 80 109 159 186 145 79 200 MB DIV -15 -17 -6 5 4 -16 1 32 10 4 19 -14 -28 700-850 TADV 6 5 0 0 -2 2 1 1 -4 2 25 -6 3 LAND (KM) 1638 1596 1538 1518 1521 1587 1678 1779 1915 2057 1994 1458 1184 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.6 33.9 33.8 33.6 32.9 32.4 32.0 31.6 31.6 34.4 39.1 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 45.4 46.2 47.2 47.9 48.3 46.8 44.9 42.4 39.3 35.9 38.5 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 7 5 5 8 9 12 16 25 26 35 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 8 3 2 5 6 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. -3. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 3. 15. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 24. 34. 50. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.4 44.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.4% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 09/23/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 09/23/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 47 49 51 54 59 69 85 90 89 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 43 45 47 50 55 65 81 86 85 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 38 40 43 48 58 74 79 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 31 34 39 49 65 70 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT