* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 09/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 50 53 56 62 74 93 96 99 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 50 53 56 62 74 93 96 99 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 43 47 54 63 79 93 88 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 14 16 14 17 18 21 14 23 14 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 -3 0 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -7 -3 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 203 153 69 34 11 2 8 343 292 257 223 259 216 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.4 26.8 25.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 131 130 131 134 133 132 130 132 127 116 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 112 112 112 112 114 116 116 119 115 104 134 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -57.8 -57.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 4 1 3 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 51 52 51 55 58 58 46 44 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 22 22 20 20 20 21 27 39 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 127 115 106 97 67 67 69 59 80 143 202 174 161 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -8 -3 12 9 9 1 50 26 33 24 -39 700-850 TADV 12 13 2 -2 -1 4 1 1 0 -6 0 -6 2 LAND (KM) 1793 1810 1715 1570 1431 1371 1569 1820 1974 2037 1842 1330 1558 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 31.9 32.9 34.1 35.0 34.8 32.9 31.0 30.6 31.5 35.2 38.4 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.3 44.1 44.7 46.0 48.8 49.2 47.1 43.5 39.9 37.3 41.4 45.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 11 13 13 10 11 14 16 18 24 24 32 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 5 1 0 3 3 6 10 3 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 20. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 32. 44. 63. 66. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 44.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 09/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.3% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.5% 5.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 09/22/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 09/22/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 50 53 56 62 74 93 96 99 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 46 49 52 58 70 89 92 95 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 42 45 51 63 82 85 88 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 32 35 41 53 72 75 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT