* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 08/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 46 60 71 79 86 88 89 89 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 46 60 71 79 86 88 89 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 41 50 57 63 67 67 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 15 13 10 10 14 11 6 6 12 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 8 10 8 5 3 2 -1 1 0 6 5 SHEAR DIR 42 45 44 52 63 48 65 79 138 239 294 283 267 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 142 142 141 138 131 118 115 113 114 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 143 143 140 132 130 116 113 108 106 105 108 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 75 73 73 71 65 58 52 49 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 20 23 25 28 31 31 30 30 29 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 107 109 113 104 120 131 128 123 107 96 58 200 MB DIV 81 119 135 128 112 134 68 33 -72 -13 -24 13 26 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -14 -12 -5 -15 -11 -9 2 9 14 25 21 LAND (KM) 119 259 386 515 650 822 939 1213 1628 1986 2115 2059 2060 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.7 14.1 16.5 18.0 18.2 18.1 18.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 17.9 19.2 20.5 21.9 23.2 24.8 26.2 28.7 32.4 35.8 38.2 39.9 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 6 14 18 19 14 10 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 13 15 19 11 4 0 0 0 0 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 14. 12. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 21. 35. 46. 54. 61. 63. 64. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 17.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 08/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 19.5% 15.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 21.7% 11.6% 5.4% 2.6% 3.5% 2.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 2.4% 1.3% 1.9% Consensus: 4.3% 14.7% 9.7% 5.1% 1.0% 2.0% 5.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 08/30/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 40 46 60 71 79 86 88 89 89 90 18HR AGO 25 24 29 36 42 56 67 75 82 84 85 85 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 28 34 48 59 67 74 76 77 77 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 35 46 54 61 63 64 64 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT