* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 08/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 33 41 55 69 81 90 93 97 97 98 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 33 41 55 69 81 90 93 97 97 98 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 33 41 50 59 66 69 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 12 10 10 8 15 7 4 2 8 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 10 13 13 7 1 4 1 0 1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 42 32 21 24 39 49 51 65 129 220 296 295 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 26.3 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 141 144 144 139 137 120 116 114 112 115 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 143 146 145 133 137 122 115 108 103 109 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -52.3 -52.6 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 75 75 73 71 61 54 55 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 16 16 21 25 29 33 34 34 33 33 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 79 87 101 108 111 103 105 129 134 136 125 71 62 200 MB DIV 70 94 122 154 150 160 103 83 -33 -27 -22 0 16 700-850 TADV -7 -13 -13 -10 -11 -13 -9 -5 -3 3 7 23 30 LAND (KM) 22 184 343 480 624 857 899 1090 1559 1934 2111 2158 2228 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.3 12.9 16.0 17.7 17.5 17.2 18.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 17.0 18.5 20.0 21.5 22.9 25.0 25.6 27.6 31.8 35.4 37.1 38.3 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 6 12 21 21 12 6 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 9 13 19 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 22. 20. 21. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 13. 21. 35. 49. 61. 70. 73. 77. 77. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 17.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 08/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 20.7% 10.0% 5.7% 3.0% 6.1% 4.8% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.2% 2.8% 4.8% Consensus: 2.3% 7.6% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 2.7% 2.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 08/30/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 33 41 55 69 81 90 93 97 97 98 18HR AGO 20 19 22 29 37 51 65 77 86 89 93 93 94 12HR AGO 20 17 16 23 31 45 59 71 80 83 87 87 88 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT