* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 38 41 46 46 43 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 41 44 49 49 39 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 31 31 32 32 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 31 23 23 29 17 19 13 5 9 16 7 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 1 1 3 1 6 0 -2 5 6 4 SHEAR DIR 267 269 256 257 275 275 220 175 115 357 333 324 308 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 133 130 129 127 122 119 120 120 113 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 121 120 117 116 115 108 103 100 100 96 79 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 9 7 11 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 64 61 62 65 56 47 50 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 12 15 16 19 16 13 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 61 65 59 71 83 96 78 53 42 2 8 200 MB DIV 38 19 32 36 38 54 38 18 6 9 -10 63 -24 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 -1 2 3 6 14 7 -1 0 -1 23 LAND (KM) -15 14 44 10 30 182 374 265 100 -22 -33 -123 -293 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 8 4 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 17 17 12 11 21 82 8 11 21 23 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 6. 1. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 16. 13. 10. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 87.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/25/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 37 41 44 49 49 39 33 29 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 37 40 45 45 35 29 25 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 35 40 40 30 24 20 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 33 33 23 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT