* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 35 37 36 37 39 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 31 31 32 32 33 34 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 27 29 28 27 27 28 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 34 27 27 30 27 19 19 8 11 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -2 3 -1 3 0 -10 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 261 268 275 271 270 286 216 194 136 354 332 339 327 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 128 128 129 128 123 121 124 119 111 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 116 114 114 117 115 107 104 105 100 92 87 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 6 9 6 11 7 13 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 61 62 61 61 63 55 47 45 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 29 38 44 53 79 76 60 45 38 -12 9 200 MB DIV 34 31 16 18 20 36 51 -3 12 -7 -6 -1 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 2 0 -2 2 0 0 0 -1 2 1 7 LAND (KM) -58 -46 -38 -49 7 187 445 257 128 33 -48 -91 -125 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 7 11 11 9 7 6 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 44 37 1 15 64 4 9 2 23 29 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 88.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/25/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 31 31 32 32 33 34 29 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 31 31 32 32 33 34 29 28 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 29 29 30 30 31 32 27 26 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 23 24 24 25 26 21 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT