* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 46 52 53 53 49 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 41 47 48 48 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 30 29 30 32 34 36 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 34 32 26 30 23 21 10 10 11 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 0 0 2 1 -1 1 1 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 269 255 262 272 272 266 237 208 140 324 322 317 304 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.0 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 130 128 127 128 130 124 120 120 121 124 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 114 114 115 117 110 103 99 100 105 86 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 8 6 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 61 60 62 62 60 52 47 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 12 14 17 21 25 24 23 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 35 34 43 56 76 82 74 64 56 15 -4 200 MB DIV 43 44 36 22 17 29 46 26 -10 7 12 -2 10 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 -4 2 3 LAND (KM) -81 -66 -51 -66 -17 152 408 271 111 33 53 -22 -197 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 7 10 11 11 7 2 3 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 52 43 33 22 10 58 5 10 7 7 32 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 14. 13. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 23. 23. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.6 88.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/24/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 41 47 48 48 37 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 41 47 48 48 37 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 30 34 39 45 46 46 35 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 25 29 34 40 41 41 30 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT