* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 32 39 48 51 52 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 29 30 34 40 50 44 32 29 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 29 28 29 30 27 27 27 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 29 30 27 26 18 15 12 21 17 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 3 0 2 -2 4 -4 1 3 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 272 265 256 261 263 236 264 203 259 265 302 236 265 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 25.6 25.5 24.5 27.2 26.5 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 135 136 137 135 114 113 102 128 121 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 120 122 125 127 109 106 91 114 109 90 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 11 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 65 65 69 69 72 74 52 44 57 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 10 13 18 23 24 24 24 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 8 20 36 43 54 82 63 60 41 49 22 64 31 200 MB DIV 43 39 35 35 29 77 56 91 2 -8 -32 43 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 0 2 5 10 12 5 0 0 0 5 LAND (KM) -76 -57 -27 3 45 100 44 170 -71 -189 -9 170 -230 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.5 20.4 22.2 26.0 30.7 32.3 29.6 28.9 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.0 87.7 87.4 87.0 86.1 84.9 83.8 85.2 88.7 89.8 86.9 85.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 5 8 15 23 23 13 14 15 22 HEAT CONTENT 58 57 54 12 27 34 30 2 0 0 21 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 17. 17. 16. 16. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 14. 23. 26. 27. 27. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.3 88.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 94.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 29 30 34 40 50 44 32 29 31 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 27 28 32 38 48 42 30 27 29 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 29 35 45 39 27 24 26 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 36 30 18 15 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT