* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 30 39 41 41 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 29 32 32 41 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 27 29 31 23 30 19 15 13 27 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 3 2 0 1 2 1 2 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 273 270 266 253 258 256 245 216 226 212 222 234 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.1 24.6 22.3 19.1 20.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 136 136 138 128 107 92 77 81 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 121 120 121 123 127 121 102 85 71 73 95 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 4 5 4 10 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 65 66 67 69 71 75 76 59 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 12 13 19 20 19 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 22 34 45 71 73 73 20 48 44 19 22 200 MB DIV 54 41 46 42 34 49 69 72 44 69 0 30 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 5 9 12 15 11 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) -73 -64 -34 -5 36 99 112 63 -33 -161 -462 -434 -138 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 20.0 20.9 23.3 27.2 32.3 34.9 34.5 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.1 87.8 87.5 87.1 86.4 85.3 83.8 82.2 82.7 84.6 86.9 87.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 6 10 17 24 21 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 58 6 27 31 58 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 3. 3. 11. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 14. 16. 16. 13. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 88.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/24/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 29 32 32 41 38 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 27 30 30 39 36 29 26 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 24 27 27 36 33 26 23 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 21 30 27 20 17 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT