* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 30 31 37 37 35 30 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 29 32 33 37 36 31 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 28 27 26 25 25 23 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 28 29 27 25 27 25 32 28 32 15 18 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 0 2 0 0 0 6 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 275 272 271 269 255 264 234 255 222 215 240 248 239 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.8 26.1 25.2 22.5 14.7 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 136 135 135 137 139 136 119 113 92 68 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 120 120 120 123 127 130 116 109 84 65 60 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -54.9 -54.8 -55.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 7 8 7 6 3 4 1 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 63 64 70 69 73 76 71 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 8 12 13 19 19 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 14 27 39 63 92 64 59 24 41 32 81 200 MB DIV 62 50 38 43 48 40 81 38 77 79 87 31 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 2 18 21 17 20 14 14 LAND (KM) -80 -97 -76 -46 -5 69 175 53 52 172 -108 -193 -147 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.9 21.5 24.8 29.8 34.9 37.6 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.4 88.2 87.9 87.5 86.8 85.6 83.8 81.5 79.4 78.6 78.0 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 4 8 16 24 28 19 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 61 58 57 6 29 47 43 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 2. 4. 10. 9. 5. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 12. 12. 10. 5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 88.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/24/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/24/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 29 32 33 37 36 31 28 28 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 27 30 31 35 34 29 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 24 27 28 32 31 26 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 21 22 26 25 20 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT