* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 26 25 27 26 27 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 29 31 30 27 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 29 27 24 22 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 33 31 29 30 27 34 26 31 18 11 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 4 -1 0 -2 0 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 281 273 274 280 272 262 258 255 245 250 220 227 235 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.3 25.9 25.0 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 127 126 129 133 135 138 141 131 118 110 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 116 110 109 113 118 119 126 133 126 115 103 75 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 57 57 63 62 66 69 70 73 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 15 10 23 42 71 90 84 83 58 23 24 200 MB DIV 42 58 30 17 16 11 47 42 76 90 71 77 60 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 9 9 27 35 19 34 LAND (KM) -110 -139 -130 -130 -130 -82 -37 67 169 29 -5 192 -47 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.1 19.7 19.5 19.4 20.3 22.4 26.5 31.6 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.7 88.7 88.7 88.6 88.2 87.8 86.8 85.1 82.6 80.2 78.3 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 1 1 2 3 3 7 13 19 26 25 19 HEAT CONTENT 59 53 51 51 52 54 56 29 66 16 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. -0. 2. 1. 2. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 88.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/23/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 29 31 30 27 33 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 27 29 28 25 31 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 24 26 25 22 28 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 18 20 19 16 22 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT