* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 26 27 26 26 25 25 25 26 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 25 23 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 28 28 25 27 22 28 27 26 25 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 2 3 2 0 0 3 1 9 -3 SHEAR DIR 281 276 272 275 284 255 257 237 266 248 253 251 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.3 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 137 140 140 142 142 141 141 138 121 114 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 120 124 124 128 128 129 131 132 117 108 102 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 9 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 60 59 64 66 71 71 75 76 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 28 29 20 54 62 97 73 93 55 18 8 200 MB DIV 33 34 42 28 22 19 32 69 50 108 99 82 43 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 9 17 42 61 22 LAND (KM) -24 -69 -93 -73 -56 -22 67 142 267 115 99 260 150 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.5 18.2 18.6 19.3 21.2 24.3 28.5 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.6 88.7 88.5 88.3 87.8 87.0 86.2 84.9 83.1 80.6 77.9 76.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 2 2 4 3 6 9 16 22 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 58 57 64 57 57 56 35 47 56 37 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 88.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/23/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 26 26 25 26 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 24 23 23 22 23 24 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT