* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 17 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 22 23 24 22 22 19 29 24 29 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 1 0 4 0 0 2 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 275 280 276 269 273 271 261 251 256 265 255 242 240 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.6 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 146 145 144 143 142 139 124 115 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 130 131 131 131 131 132 133 133 119 109 102 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 64 65 72 72 76 75 77 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 47 44 37 35 48 76 90 83 74 54 32 14 200 MB DIV 30 34 31 47 33 33 40 71 63 82 93 102 56 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 2 13 20 44 60 8 LAND (KM) 39 10 0 10 15 76 153 197 292 184 40 139 186 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.6 18.5 20.5 23.4 27.5 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 88.1 88.2 88.1 87.9 87.3 86.6 85.8 84.6 83.1 81.0 78.8 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 2 2 3 4 6 9 15 21 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 17 25 33 36 42 47 46 48 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 87.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/23/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 28 28 29 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 26 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 23 23 24 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT