* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 28 33 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 28 33 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 21 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 21 22 19 23 22 26 25 21 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 1 0 4 -1 1 0 6 2 7 SHEAR DIR 266 268 269 270 263 271 242 248 240 263 228 237 227 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 26.5 25.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 146 145 142 141 140 138 123 116 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 129 129 130 130 127 128 130 133 119 112 94 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 9 7 8 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 66 68 68 73 70 73 72 75 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 6 8 7 11 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 56 49 47 43 39 68 73 86 66 71 17 55 200 MB DIV 39 41 48 48 59 20 50 64 93 63 100 75 119 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -3 0 4 15 21 45 34 LAND (KM) 106 95 84 74 84 107 143 195 272 171 71 147 25 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 19.0 20.5 23.7 28.2 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.3 87.4 87.5 87.4 87.0 86.4 85.8 84.9 83.3 81.0 79.0 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 9 15 22 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 40 39 38 40 47 55 58 52 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -2. -4. 0. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 3. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 87.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/23/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/23/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 28 33 36 36 36 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 26 28 26 31 34 34 34 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 22 24 22 27 30 30 30 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 17 15 20 23 23 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT