* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 35 36 40 44 47 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 34 31 29 34 37 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 25 25 23 25 28 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 25 24 21 20 14 15 18 17 16 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 -4 -6 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 275 266 275 276 263 282 237 248 239 255 271 282 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 151 152 153 150 149 147 147 145 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 135 136 138 136 138 135 138 139 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 10 8 10 8 9 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 55 60 60 59 63 63 66 69 71 69 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 10 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 54 56 45 48 44 70 84 101 86 69 42 200 MB DIV 44 37 29 33 32 46 29 58 67 81 74 66 47 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 1 1 7 16 LAND (KM) 107 63 31 10 0 0 71 45 -16 -16 78 346 80 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.1 16.7 16.2 15.6 15.7 16.5 18.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.6 87.9 88.1 88.2 88.2 87.6 87.1 86.4 85.5 84.1 82.4 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 7 10 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 29 20 20 45 44 55 54 33 47 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 10. 11. 15. 19. 22. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 87.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/22/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/22/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 34 31 29 34 37 42 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 26 27 32 29 27 32 35 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 24 29 26 24 29 32 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT