* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 28 28 25 24 23 26 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 31 31 29 32 29 24 31 26 26 26 36 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 2 3 3 4 7 6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 278 283 285 281 275 284 266 279 265 266 259 281 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 139 139 136 133 130 128 127 128 132 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 127 125 125 121 117 113 112 110 111 118 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 9 10 9 10 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 57 56 61 58 60 57 59 57 59 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 10 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 49 37 41 32 20 14 35 38 73 69 93 200 MB DIV 12 39 42 37 16 38 37 32 23 27 42 58 55 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 2 3 13 10 LAND (KM) 218 161 116 81 47 -2 -32 -47 -43 -29 -34 21 100 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.1 86.5 86.8 87.1 87.5 87.7 87.8 87.7 87.5 87.4 86.8 84.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 5 11 HEAT CONTENT 59 61 54 44 35 7 50 52 44 44 34 22 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -1. -2. 1. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.9 85.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/22/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/22/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 29 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 22 23 23 24 24 24 28 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 18 19 19 20 20 20 24 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT