* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902018 05/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 22 22 20 18 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 22 22 26 23 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 32 32 30 32 27 36 31 33 27 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 2 2 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 283 272 277 283 284 287 277 266 268 261 283 270 258 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 140 135 133 128 126 125 123 122 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 127 128 126 121 118 112 109 108 106 105 111 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 60 58 62 58 57 58 56 54 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 65 68 50 40 40 23 31 37 54 64 71 90 200 MB DIV 37 32 42 38 34 42 39 21 0 19 26 22 26 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 3 4 1 LAND (KM) 213 234 222 186 139 74 18 -10 20 64 80 68 65 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.2 85.5 85.8 86.2 86.7 87.0 87.0 87.1 87.2 87.7 87.8 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 3 2 2 2 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 56 64 70 62 36 12 40 7 6 4 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -11. -16. -22. -27. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 0. -2. 3. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902018 INVEST 05/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902018 INVEST 05/21/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902018 INVEST 05/21/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 23 24 22 22 26 23 28 28 29 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 22 20 20 24 21 26 26 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 18 16 16 20 17 22 22 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT