* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 10/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 42 51 62 65 66 62 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 32 33 42 53 56 58 54 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 33 28 36 40 42 46 46 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 1 7 8 14 10 9 11 32 32 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 1 -1 8 0 1 5 6 SHEAR DIR 344 332 240 213 215 201 191 100 7 336 354 354 40 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.2 27.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 172 173 168 164 160 141 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 170 170 170 170 172 173 163 155 147 127 111 98 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 85 85 84 85 79 79 78 76 72 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 12 15 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 106 123 145 153 168 149 85 0 -27 -77 -73 -44 200 MB DIV 98 110 122 126 156 156 98 62 14 44 12 48 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -9 2 21 9 55 43 LAND (KM) 222 156 97 48 -7 4 246 124 245 370 38 -200 -257 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 11 14 15 15 14 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 49 52 11 60 88 98 83 93 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 26. 37. 40. 41. 37. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 81.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.23 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.72 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -3.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.94 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 28.8% 14.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 73.3% 48.1% 24.7% 9.9% 39.6% 48.9% 79.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 12.1% Consensus: 4.7% 36.6% 21.4% 10.8% 3.3% 13.3% 22.5% 30.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 10/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 32 33 42 53 56 58 54 36 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 29 30 39 50 53 55 51 33 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 24 25 34 45 48 50 46 28 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT