* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 10/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 52 59 70 78 82 86 89 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 52 39 47 54 51 55 41 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 40 50 40 45 49 47 51 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 8 6 1 9 13 9 14 4 1 10 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 1 0 5 9 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 88 24 5 21 37 231 223 179 151 71 19 230 246 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.7 29.5 29.5 27.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 169 170 172 172 166 164 165 134 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 168 169 169 169 170 171 172 162 165 161 122 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -51.9 -50.9 -51.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 6 3 5 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 84 86 88 88 85 81 75 68 60 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 17 20 20 22 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 81 84 90 98 112 137 172 180 138 57 8 -23 -22 200 MB DIV 88 94 108 111 126 134 159 136 97 72 50 58 58 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 8 -3 5 48 LAND (KM) 242 234 198 145 103 32 -23 138 70 115 235 -86 -449 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.6 15.3 17.1 19.2 22.6 27.0 31.1 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.5 81.9 82.3 82.6 83.2 84.1 85.5 86.8 88.3 89.8 90.5 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 8 10 12 14 22 23 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 43 48 54 57 53 55 51 82 93 25 35 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 13. 15. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 34. 45. 53. 57. 61. 64. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 81.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.8 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.64 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 6.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 47.4% 28.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 72.5% 51.8% 23.4% 9.3% 43.3% 73.7% 87.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 11.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.1% 52.3% Consensus: 5.6% 43.7% 28.3% 11.1% 3.1% 14.7% 34.7% 46.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 10/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 43 52 39 47 54 51 55 41 31 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 48 35 43 50 47 51 37 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 41 28 36 43 40 44 30 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 30 17 25 32 29 33 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT