* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 10/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 39 51 64 70 77 86 92 90 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 39 38 32 28 27 39 45 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 34 30 28 27 34 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 6 4 3 5 8 7 2 1 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 6 9 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 351 346 349 12 36 200 223 267 268 313 231 218 224 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.7 28.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 167 168 171 175 172 170 142 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 170 170 170 169 167 168 171 175 178 175 127 98 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 84 84 88 90 90 87 78 69 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 14 17 15 18 21 23 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 79 83 91 99 102 131 143 157 136 77 13 -21 -28 200 MB DIV 79 76 91 99 121 154 225 187 153 89 55 37 108 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 4 14 -5 15 3 LAND (KM) 285 232 161 97 34 -18 -58 -75 -1 106 293 -65 -292 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.2 13.1 15.8 20.7 26.5 30.5 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.5 82.2 82.8 83.4 83.9 84.2 84.2 84.3 85.9 88.8 90.9 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 2 3 9 19 31 28 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 51 49 29 2 62 72 36 81 35 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 6. 9. 13. 14. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 14. 26. 39. 45. 52. 61. 67. 65. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 81.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 10/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 11.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 37.0% 16.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 67.5% 46.4% 24.1% 12.9% 48.6% 74.7% 88.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 22.4% 7.9% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% 3.7% 40.7% Consensus: 6.1% 42.3% 23.4% 11.1% 4.3% 16.7% 32.7% 43.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 10/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 10/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 39 38 32 28 27 39 45 37 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 36 35 29 25 24 36 42 34 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 30 24 20 19 31 37 29 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT