* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 41 51 60 69 79 83 73 76 79 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 41 38 30 43 52 56 41 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 34 29 38 47 54 45 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 15 15 5 5 7 5 13 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 243 257 277 305 258 31 22 6 343 23 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 160 163 167 164 164 164 162 155 151 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 153 158 160 163 157 154 152 150 142 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 11 10 11 10 9 9 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 68 67 68 69 71 72 73 78 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 17 17 18 21 22 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 45 26 30 42 32 38 47 57 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 58 64 62 76 67 27 49 52 29 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -5 -2 -3 -5 -2 -3 -7 -18 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 120 108 155 167 -69 -24 184 291 125 -56 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.3 21.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.6 83.8 85.0 86.1 88.4 90.3 92.2 94.1 96.0 97.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 35 45 65 72 83 40 32 56 50 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 10. 10. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 30. 39. 49. 53. 43. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 81.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.82 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 30.0% 15.4% 8.6% 7.2% 15.0% 32.8% 61.7% Logistic: 9.2% 50.0% 31.6% 9.8% 2.5% 32.3% 60.4% 85.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 10.1% 65.1% Consensus: 5.4% 28.0% 16.3% 6.2% 3.3% 15.9% 34.5% 70.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 41 38 30 43 52 56 41 32 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 39 36 28 41 50 54 39 30 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 31 23 36 45 49 34 25 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT