* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 39 48 57 67 80 86 76 71 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 39 48 41 52 64 70 50 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 39 35 41 51 60 45 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 9 12 15 5 10 3 9 14 19 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -4 -7 -2 -4 0 -2 -2 -4 3 6 SHEAR DIR 294 293 252 266 286 269 304 130 6 5 14 57 67 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.9 29.6 30.0 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.7 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 159 169 165 172 161 152 154 167 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 145 147 154 166 164 166 149 138 144 166 174 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 12 10 13 9 12 9 12 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 74 73 71 68 65 63 65 70 77 80 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 14 16 17 18 23 24 14 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 64 49 41 41 15 35 52 58 66 82 71 200 MB DIV 38 38 62 71 67 78 12 49 41 21 29 55 72 700-850 TADV 1 2 -1 0 1 -4 -5 0 -6 -9 -14 -3 0 LAND (KM) 225 106 72 47 71 154 -82 212 258 67 -84 -282 -52 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 18.5 20.7 22.2 21.7 20.9 20.6 20.4 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.3 83.1 83.8 84.6 86.1 88.5 91.9 94.7 96.4 97.9 101.1 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 8 10 14 18 15 11 7 11 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 35 36 48 85 51 38 58 44 13 0 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 14. 1. -8. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 27. 37. 50. 56. 46. 42. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 81.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 16.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 18.4% 54.7% Logistic: 2.9% 18.3% 8.1% 1.1% 0.3% 10.4% 29.9% 76.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% 10.5% Consensus: 2.5% 11.8% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 7.7% 16.8% 47.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 39 48 41 52 64 70 50 34 29 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 37 46 39 50 62 68 48 32 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 42 35 46 58 64 44 28 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 26 37 49 55 35 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT