* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 54 60 68 78 76 67 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 41 44 53 62 61 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 34 37 44 52 56 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 15 18 11 10 5 5 13 20 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 272 288 291 270 264 278 240 110 87 16 346 44 75 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 30.1 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 149 154 158 174 165 167 159 155 153 166 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 147 151 157 174 165 161 145 140 147 167 174 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 71 64 62 61 67 72 73 78 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 13 15 15 17 20 17 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 76 70 66 59 46 17 25 37 51 57 59 77 85 200 MB DIV 59 40 37 56 70 63 58 23 46 53 24 40 69 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 0 -2 -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -13 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 433 409 323 270 271 270 -95 179 251 162 35 -342 -56 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.1 19.1 20.6 21.3 20.7 20.5 21.3 21.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.9 84.9 88.4 92.0 94.0 95.1 97.0 101.0 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 12 14 19 18 14 7 6 15 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 65 49 55 101 51 33 47 46 31 0 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 7. 10. 6. -6. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 30. 38. 48. 46. 37. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 78.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.8% 13.2% 8.0% 6.6% 12.8% 16.9% 23.5% Logistic: 4.4% 33.7% 19.9% 7.3% 4.2% 13.4% 29.8% 74.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 33.0% Consensus: 3.6% 17.4% 11.2% 5.1% 3.6% 8.9% 16.0% 43.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 45 41 44 53 62 61 37 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 39 42 51 60 59 35 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 34 37 46 55 54 30 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 26 29 38 47 46 22 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT