* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 58 65 73 78 76 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 36 44 51 57 45 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 31 37 43 49 44 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 16 16 14 19 10 9 3 6 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -2 -6 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 247 268 283 284 260 272 232 285 195 354 12 1 43 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 150 154 162 168 166 164 157 154 154 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 144 147 150 161 166 162 153 144 141 147 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 8 11 9 12 7 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 73 74 72 69 67 70 74 76 79 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 17 18 15 8 850 MB ENV VOR 79 74 72 63 60 43 36 28 41 52 63 67 69 200 MB DIV 79 63 40 31 49 62 80 43 39 29 48 68 61 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 -2 -2 -8 -9 0 -7 -4 -13 -4 LAND (KM) 405 395 365 261 195 144 69 -74 155 172 112 -65 -265 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 17.1 18.6 19.5 20.0 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.8 79.8 80.8 81.7 84.1 86.9 89.9 92.4 94.0 95.4 97.5 100.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 14 15 14 9 7 8 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 49 46 35 59 91 50 29 34 40 21 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 21. 28. 35. 43. 48. 46. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 77.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.9% 13.3% 7.8% 6.5% 12.5% 17.3% 34.5% Logistic: 4.0% 27.2% 14.9% 3.5% 1.3% 11.6% 30.6% 68.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 29.0% Consensus: 3.5% 15.7% 9.7% 3.8% 2.6% 8.1% 16.1% 43.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 44 51 36 44 51 57 45 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 48 33 41 48 54 42 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 43 28 36 43 49 37 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 20 28 35 41 29 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT