* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 41 46 54 59 66 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 34 39 41 32 36 41 43 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 30 33 36 29 33 36 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 17 17 15 16 10 12 5 9 7 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -4 -4 -5 3 SHEAR DIR 289 251 265 277 278 264 281 280 305 262 335 349 49 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 149 152 155 160 170 168 164 159 153 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 147 148 150 152 156 164 162 156 152 144 154 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 72 72 77 76 77 76 76 75 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 11 11 13 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 81 73 74 70 66 60 48 57 52 47 49 54 52 200 MB DIV 49 74 62 32 32 84 97 84 51 56 42 58 72 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -9 0 -5 -2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 400 382 387 247 118 -35 51 -14 -109 66 185 7 -234 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.1 19.2 20.2 20.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 78.3 79.6 80.9 82.1 84.4 86.6 88.4 90.3 92.1 94.4 97.0 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 13 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 36 43 39 28 70 35 86 36 29 40 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 3. 2. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 36. 40. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 77.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 19.5% 14.6% 8.6% 7.3% 13.4% 17.6% 27.5% Logistic: 5.0% 31.5% 18.2% 5.3% 2.7% 19.5% 23.0% 57.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 28.8% Consensus: 4.2% 17.7% 11.2% 4.7% 3.3% 11.3% 13.9% 37.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 34 39 41 32 36 41 43 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 31 36 38 29 33 38 40 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 26 31 33 24 28 33 35 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 18 23 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT