* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 57 63 70 75 78 77 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 11 9 14 13 9 9 1 7 2 9 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 302 298 257 265 284 271 276 268 336 321 308 332 358 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 150 152 160 167 169 169 165 160 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 146 149 150 149 156 160 162 161 162 156 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 10 9 10 6 9 7 9 7 11 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 67 68 71 75 80 81 82 81 82 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 79 68 74 70 69 65 67 65 76 63 61 63 200 MB DIV 36 53 65 74 52 69 85 89 82 74 60 47 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 4 1 0 -13 LAND (KM) 346 405 416 290 140 -98 -105 -49 -44 -188 -11 192 -52 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.9 17.0 18.5 20.3 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.8 79.1 80.5 81.9 84.3 86.4 88.0 89.4 90.6 92.1 94.5 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 14 13 11 9 7 8 8 13 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 51 35 35 37 27 44 75 61 72 0 46 42 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 20. 27. 33. 40. 45. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 76.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.2% 14.1% 8.0% 6.6% 13.4% 19.0% 58.4% Logistic: 6.4% 34.6% 18.7% 4.4% 2.1% 18.8% 33.9% 81.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 15.5% 82.6% Consensus: 4.8% 18.9% 11.2% 4.2% 2.9% 11.6% 22.8% 74.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 33 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 31 26 24 24 24 24 30 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 26 21 19 19 19 19 25 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT