* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 33 39 46 53 59 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 23 26 21 13 17 9 3 9 11 13 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 2 -4 -3 1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 315 319 323 325 303 286 268 294 87 62 72 37 8 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 143 145 145 147 152 155 165 171 170 169 171 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 144 146 145 147 154 155 164 166 166 165 171 154 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 9 10 7 9 6 8 5 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 68 72 75 78 81 83 86 88 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 86 84 81 69 69 65 68 80 82 84 93 91 200 MB DIV -6 13 34 50 56 47 65 93 101 63 88 74 77 700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 -6 -6 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 168 259 354 366 371 161 -86 -87 -98 -137 -141 -124 -11 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.8 16.6 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.6 76.0 77.3 78.7 81.7 84.6 87.3 89.4 90.9 91.7 92.8 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 15 14 12 8 6 5 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 34 46 40 37 29 62 52 78 70 68 69 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 28. 34. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 73.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.1% 9.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 4.1% 47.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 5.8% Consensus: 1.4% 5.2% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.9% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT