* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 28 32 37 42 49 56 63 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 23 26 18 16 11 9 1 5 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 -1 3 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 312 296 302 313 320 264 278 267 329 66 69 72 55 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 143 146 147 150 153 161 170 170 169 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 145 148 147 152 155 161 167 168 165 166 169 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 9 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 64 67 69 75 75 80 82 86 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 73 72 75 69 74 68 67 70 86 83 83 80 200 MB DIV 0 -2 16 33 40 67 66 70 73 73 97 79 95 700-850 TADV 5 6 1 -2 -8 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 84 178 311 378 334 290 -31 -94 -88 -100 -85 -72 -75 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.9 74.4 76.0 77.5 80.5 83.6 86.4 88.8 90.5 91.6 92.1 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 15 14 15 14 13 10 7 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 42 53 40 46 50 75 79 70 68 70 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -0. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 31. 38. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 71.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.8% 13.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.9% 4.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 5.2% 61.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 3.2% 8.6% 5.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.4% 6.1% 20.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 25 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 24 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 21 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT