* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 39 44 52 60 66 72 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 23 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 19 23 13 15 7 3 8 8 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 -3 -7 -4 0 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 332 333 310 311 313 260 270 235 244 117 76 94 65 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 139 143 146 147 151 154 162 167 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 140 144 147 146 152 153 160 160 162 161 163 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 11 10 10 12 9 11 7 9 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 64 63 64 70 71 74 78 80 82 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 76 85 92 78 79 78 70 77 85 96 95 200 MB DIV 26 5 -2 7 25 45 43 61 67 87 71 88 78 700-850 TADV -3 1 5 0 -1 -2 2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 91 103 171 311 376 357 193 -43 -81 -39 -115 -188 -150 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 71.2 72.7 74.2 75.7 78.6 81.4 84.0 86.5 88.4 89.8 90.9 91.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 29 41 52 38 32 39 78 87 72 70 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 27. 35. 41. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 69.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.5% 11.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.7% 6.7% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 4.4% 51.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% Consensus: 2.4% 9.1% 6.0% 3.2% 0.4% 0.5% 5.3% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 29 29 25 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 22 18 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT