* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 48 53 58 63 67 73 78 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 48 53 58 38 30 32 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 49 51 35 29 28 36 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 12 13 12 19 13 13 7 2 10 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -5 -5 -5 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 97 321 329 325 298 295 257 268 225 190 107 80 93 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.3 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 135 135 139 146 148 151 158 171 170 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 137 137 140 148 151 154 160 171 170 164 162 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 11 10 12 9 10 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 67 65 64 65 69 71 74 78 82 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 75 76 75 84 102 76 80 80 80 85 85 87 200 MB DIV 73 68 42 20 15 25 40 56 62 66 76 63 79 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -9 -3 3 0 -3 3 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 171 111 80 78 214 361 388 38 -210 -55 1 18 18 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.1 13.9 13.9 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.3 68.7 70.2 71.8 73.4 76.4 79.6 83.0 85.9 88.4 90.1 91.2 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 16 16 15 15 16 16 13 10 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 26 20 22 22 40 34 28 0 55 16 10 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 43. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 67.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.2% 13.8% 8.4% 7.2% 12.6% 15.2% 20.5% Logistic: 4.8% 35.0% 19.1% 6.7% 2.3% 10.2% 31.5% 79.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 6.2% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% 8.7% 59.0% Consensus: 4.4% 19.8% 12.9% 5.2% 3.2% 8.1% 18.5% 53.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 44 48 53 58 38 30 32 37 40 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 44 49 54 34 26 28 33 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 37 42 47 27 19 21 26 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 32 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT