* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 45 51 54 56 60 65 70 75 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 45 51 54 56 38 37 42 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 48 35 34 36 41 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 5 8 14 18 16 17 7 4 6 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 108 136 171 325 331 304 299 256 247 175 103 73 69 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 139 136 137 145 148 151 157 166 164 164 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 141 140 141 148 152 157 161 167 160 155 159 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 11 11 12 11 10 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 67 64 61 60 64 68 74 77 82 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 74 73 76 81 104 73 71 69 68 62 61 68 200 MB DIV 62 79 79 43 15 4 23 44 69 104 95 97 80 700-850 TADV 2 2 -1 -8 -5 -1 -3 2 2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 180 187 144 115 108 320 444 93 -182 22 99 144 89 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.0 13.7 13.4 12.9 12.6 12.6 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 67.3 68.7 70.3 72.1 75.6 79.0 82.5 85.8 88.3 90.0 90.9 91.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 17 18 17 16 17 15 11 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 38 38 23 23 40 32 27 40 24 16 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 24. 26. 30. 35. 40. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 65.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 23.3% 15.0% 8.6% 7.3% 13.5% 17.3% 22.4% Logistic: 11.9% 51.1% 32.1% 11.2% 2.6% 27.5% 40.3% 81.7% Bayesian: 2.6% 21.0% 13.3% 2.9% 0.3% 8.0% 13.5% 73.3% Consensus: 7.2% 31.8% 20.1% 7.6% 3.4% 16.3% 23.7% 59.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 42 45 51 54 56 38 37 42 47 50 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 41 47 50 52 34 33 38 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 39 42 44 26 25 30 35 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 32 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT