* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 08/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 47 53 59 62 67 73 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 47 53 59 44 39 45 49 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 50 39 35 38 43 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 3 5 10 11 17 14 10 4 7 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 87 66 149 264 304 277 276 244 260 161 103 79 66 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 143 139 137 144 146 149 152 159 159 157 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 146 143 141 149 151 154 155 159 155 149 152 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 9 12 10 12 8 9 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 66 65 61 61 63 71 73 77 82 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 76 73 83 104 90 66 67 68 61 65 64 200 MB DIV 77 59 77 74 35 -3 26 49 64 90 96 115 95 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -8 -13 2 1 -2 4 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 179 211 187 125 98 256 438 184 -153 25 124 165 138 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.2 12.6 12.4 12.0 12.0 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.2 67.7 69.3 71.1 74.9 78.4 81.8 85.0 87.5 89.1 90.1 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 17 18 18 17 16 14 10 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 31 43 33 23 30 27 26 28 28 15 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 28. 34. 37. 42. 48. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 64.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 08/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.0% 14.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 50.7% 30.1% 11.4% 3.7% 26.3% 30.6% 75.6% Bayesian: 3.4% 18.4% 7.8% 1.2% 0.3% 8.5% 7.4% 46.9% Consensus: 6.9% 29.7% 17.5% 6.9% 1.3% 11.6% 18.3% 40.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 08/03/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 08/03/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 36 40 47 53 59 44 39 45 49 53 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 42 48 54 39 34 40 44 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 41 47 32 27 33 37 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 32 38 23 18 24 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT