* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 03/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 31 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 62 60 64 67 66 72 72 72 56 40 22 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -2 -5 -10 -12 -13 -12 -10 -5 -4 -1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 258 264 271 271 265 257 254 253 255 249 242 250 241 SST (C) 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.4 22.2 21.4 20.9 21.1 20.4 19.2 18.0 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 98 97 94 88 85 84 86 84 82 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 88 86 85 80 78 77 80 79 78 80 73 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.9 -52.0 -52.3 -53.3 -54.4 -56.5 -57.5 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 46 48 45 44 42 47 55 56 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 19 19 17 17 17 19 19 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 67 53 53 59 59 62 75 69 67 109 130 175 200 MB DIV 11 11 21 36 51 40 79 69 53 70 96 69 90 700-850 TADV 14 8 9 6 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -23 -17 -30 115 LAND (KM) 432 528 621 705 798 1007 1207 1376 1619 1691 1497 1273 1103 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.6 28.0 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.5 34.0 38.8 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.1 68.8 68.4 67.7 65.9 63.4 60.2 56.6 52.1 47.2 41.8 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 11 13 14 19 22 27 40 46 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -26. -42. -55. -63. -67. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -31. -37. -44. -48. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.5 69.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 03/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 63.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.23 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 03/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 03/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT