* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 53 63 71 74 68 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 53 63 71 74 68 45 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 50 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 17 17 15 13 8 6 7 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -6 -8 -8 -6 -6 -3 0 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 160 173 171 163 163 155 163 129 129 161 150 139 136 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 153 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 154 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 146 143 142 144 147 150 152 152 154 152 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 62 60 59 57 58 59 63 66 67 70 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 17 16 17 19 20 19 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 67 64 64 56 71 73 76 62 66 73 88 200 MB DIV 106 90 94 98 107 120 107 103 98 89 60 21 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 -3 6 6 7 LAND (KM) 212 228 247 253 260 255 235 239 288 163 52 -108 -50 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 0 1 3 4 6 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 35 35 35 34 33 29 29 32 21 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -5. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 23. 33. 41. 44. 38. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 79.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.7% 11.0% 8.9% 6.4% 8.9% 16.2% Logistic: 6.2% 32.2% 13.3% 6.7% 0.0% 11.2% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 11.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.6% Consensus: 4.3% 20.7% 9.4% 5.2% 2.1% 7.0% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 46 53 63 71 74 68 45 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 43 50 60 68 71 65 42 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 45 55 63 66 60 37 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 36 46 54 57 51 28 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT