* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 53 60 68 76 83 84 85 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 53 60 68 76 83 84 85 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 52 59 68 76 80 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 13 11 14 6 11 6 9 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -7 0 -6 -1 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 155 166 160 150 155 134 122 83 83 93 110 148 148 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 155 155 152 151 155 157 158 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 147 148 149 145 143 149 153 155 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 4 7 5 7 4 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 68 62 60 61 58 58 62 67 72 74 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 17 16 17 17 20 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 76 68 78 71 60 44 52 48 56 67 82 77 69 200 MB DIV 104 107 88 89 90 115 121 114 108 78 84 87 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 188 201 202 183 153 90 39 17 58 135 253 205 -21 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.3 9.8 9.6 10.0 10.8 11.8 12.8 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.3 79.2 79.1 79.0 78.9 78.8 78.8 78.9 79.3 80.1 81.6 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 3 3 3 1 0 3 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 39 43 51 27 33 56 43 28 27 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 5. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 38. 46. 53. 54. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 79.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 33.2% 13.9% 10.7% 8.0% 10.1% 19.7% Logistic: 6.7% 39.5% 20.1% 8.0% 0.0% 20.8% 11.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 21.4% 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 6.0% Consensus: 5.5% 31.3% 14.1% 6.3% 2.7% 10.6% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 41 46 53 60 68 76 83 84 85 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 48 55 63 71 78 79 80 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 42 49 57 65 72 73 74 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 39 47 55 62 63 64 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT