* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 54 62 71 78 82 75 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 54 62 71 78 82 47 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 45 54 60 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 10 10 12 10 10 6 7 2 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -5 -3 -6 3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 143 151 170 156 145 146 106 129 73 137 112 137 138 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 155 154 154 155 156 159 160 152 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 147 147 146 147 149 152 156 159 151 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 70 65 62 59 59 58 60 63 67 66 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 17 18 19 18 18 19 20 13 7 850 MB ENV VOR 86 83 76 83 77 66 70 65 77 70 66 66 78 200 MB DIV 98 95 103 102 107 125 125 139 104 74 118 72 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 LAND (KM) 183 201 200 178 157 115 102 140 227 219 39 -184 -77 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.7 79.6 79.4 79.3 79.2 79.3 79.9 80.5 81.6 83.2 85.2 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 34 38 41 47 49 42 31 31 20 22 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. -6. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 29. 37. 46. 53. 57. 50. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 79.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 26.3% 11.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% Logistic: 4.6% 30.5% 14.8% 4.5% 0.0% 17.1% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.6% Consensus: 3.9% 23.0% 10.4% 4.8% 0.0% 5.8% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 45 54 62 71 78 82 47 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 42 51 59 68 75 79 44 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 46 54 63 70 74 39 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 36 44 53 60 64 29 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT