* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 53 63 69 75 73 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 53 63 69 75 52 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 44 49 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 13 12 14 10 13 7 8 10 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -6 -3 -5 -2 -3 -6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 149 149 151 156 161 143 127 121 140 91 125 128 127 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 155 155 154 156 157 158 160 148 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 148 148 148 148 146 150 153 157 160 147 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 6 5 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 78 74 72 68 65 63 61 59 59 65 66 67 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 17 17 16 18 18 18 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 85 82 79 71 74 53 50 57 80 89 77 76 81 200 MB DIV 102 99 89 94 97 119 135 148 119 119 104 82 68 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 5 7 LAND (KM) 175 190 189 183 166 119 116 149 189 273 103 -103 60 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.5 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 79.7 79.4 79.1 78.9 78.6 78.3 78.7 79.6 81.0 82.8 84.8 86.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 36 39 42 46 44 44 35 31 34 23 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 2. 1. 1. -4. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 22. 28. 38. 44. 50. 48. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 80.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 18.6% 11.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% Logistic: 5.1% 39.0% 22.3% 9.1% 0.0% 19.2% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.8% Consensus: 3.7% 21.4% 11.6% 6.0% 0.0% 6.6% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 53 63 69 75 52 43 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 38 45 51 61 67 73 50 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 41 47 57 63 69 46 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 38 48 54 60 37 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT