* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 33 42 50 60 68 75 81 86 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 33 42 50 60 68 75 81 69 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 35 40 45 51 47 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 13 10 8 10 9 9 3 9 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 -5 -4 -6 -2 -5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 153 145 137 138 139 143 143 126 159 159 139 132 123 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 156 156 155 155 156 158 158 158 158 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 148 150 150 150 148 152 155 155 155 155 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 73 71 65 63 62 62 62 61 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 16 17 17 17 19 20 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 87 79 73 71 63 62 53 63 76 72 72 75 76 200 MB DIV 117 98 88 93 101 100 133 122 118 110 97 114 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 170 156 134 109 77 71 84 162 239 336 140 -36 -93 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.8 11.7 12.6 12.9 12.6 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.4 80.2 79.9 79.5 78.8 78.3 78.2 79.0 80.4 82.2 83.9 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 2 5 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 40 45 56 60 49 43 40 29 33 41 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 17. 25. 35. 43. 50. 56. 61. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 80.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.0% 10.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 37.0% 18.8% 6.3% 0.0% 18.7% 22.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 12.9% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.9% Consensus: 3.7% 22.7% 11.2% 5.0% 0.0% 6.3% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 33 42 50 60 68 75 81 69 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 31 40 48 58 66 73 79 67 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 26 35 43 53 61 68 74 62 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 36 46 54 61 67 55 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT