* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 52 60 64 67 69 74 77 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 52 60 64 67 69 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 42 43 43 45 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 14 12 11 15 15 11 6 3 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 -5 -4 -6 -7 -6 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 155 163 161 160 153 177 180 196 156 204 231 182 189 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 156 155 153 153 155 155 155 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 151 151 152 148 142 144 147 146 147 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 5 4 6 5 6 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 76 75 66 61 57 60 62 67 70 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 12 11 13 14 16 16 16 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 83 85 84 86 78 66 57 64 69 78 86 86 81 200 MB DIV 99 114 97 94 107 91 103 102 91 73 78 82 85 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 192 182 175 188 215 281 340 338 311 326 335 247 116 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 37 38 41 44 44 39 33 30 29 32 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 5. 5. 4. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 22. 30. 34. 37. 39. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 80.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 29.9% 12.3% 10.3% 7.6% 9.9% 18.4% Logistic: 5.6% 38.4% 19.2% 7.0% 0.0% 15.2% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 11.8% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 4.4% 26.7% 11.8% 5.8% 2.6% 8.4% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 47 52 60 64 67 69 74 77 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 44 49 57 61 64 66 71 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 43 51 55 58 60 65 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 34 42 46 49 51 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT