* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 43 51 56 64 69 72 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 43 51 56 45 51 53 57 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 38 42 46 38 43 48 52 57 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 12 9 6 7 8 5 7 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 170 153 166 172 159 153 145 148 168 161 308 141 167 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 155 154 153 153 154 157 158 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 146 146 148 148 148 148 149 156 158 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 78 76 73 66 67 64 68 69 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 13 13 15 15 14 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 77 67 70 61 57 46 53 59 80 90 81 200 MB DIV 68 95 103 86 83 91 91 105 108 121 79 69 72 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 196 203 192 178 154 90 13 -11 28 147 300 236 34 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.1 9.6 9.4 9.7 10.8 12.3 13.6 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.1 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.2 79.7 79.1 78.8 78.8 79.6 81.1 82.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 3 4 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 37 37 38 48 18 32 15 47 32 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 21. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 81.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.77 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.54 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 12.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 38.3% 19.9% 11.3% 8.6% 13.2% 23.5% Logistic: 17.3% 57.5% 39.3% 23.6% 0.0% 31.5% 35.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 67.8% 42.7% 3.2% 1.0% 32.5% 50.8% Consensus: 9.5% 54.6% 34.0% 12.7% 3.2% 25.7% 36.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 43 51 56 45 51 53 57 60 63 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 39 47 52 41 47 49 53 56 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 40 45 34 40 42 46 49 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 35 24 30 32 36 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT