* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 54 59 63 67 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 54 48 37 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 39 33 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 19 21 17 11 11 13 13 15 14 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 181 160 157 170 179 156 160 143 142 124 125 98 110 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 154 153 152 147 142 138 136 141 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 145 146 146 146 142 137 132 129 136 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 78 76 73 66 60 57 58 59 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 73 74 64 74 71 64 51 59 50 47 63 200 MB DIV 49 63 86 90 77 89 77 73 103 71 52 64 87 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 187 193 178 168 150 94 44 -11 -35 -27 -56 -37 -51 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.6 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.4 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.6 81.8 82.1 82.4 82.7 82.8 83.1 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 43 44 47 49 29 4 16 16 18 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 38. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 81.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 23.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 30.6% 14.5% 10.7% 8.1% 10.0% 19.0% Logistic: 21.5% 51.4% 37.2% 24.6% 0.0% 24.6% 27.2% Bayesian: 5.3% 69.0% 45.6% 5.2% 2.6% 26.8% 33.4% Consensus: 11.7% 50.3% 32.4% 13.5% 3.5% 20.5% 26.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 54 48 37 32 29 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 50 44 33 28 25 24 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 44 38 27 22 19 18 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT