* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 30 34 38 41 43 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 20 24 30 35 39 41 44 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 23 26 26 26 25 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 13 17 20 18 20 21 23 23 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 191 196 180 168 160 168 143 143 130 142 126 120 114 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 154 151 140 133 128 126 126 126 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 147 149 147 138 130 123 121 121 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 73 75 75 70 62 55 52 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 50 46 49 49 41 44 51 59 45 45 40 200 MB DIV 22 28 35 43 65 77 85 43 48 54 48 24 39 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 155 121 82 42 -9 -18 31 119 158 190 218 258 298 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.3 9.3 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.5 82.8 83.1 83.4 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.8 85.2 85.5 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 45 30 28 14 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 82.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 25.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 22.2% 12.0% 3.4% 0.0% 4.8% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 1.0% 9.6% 4.4% 1.1% 0.0% 1.6% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 20 24 30 35 39 41 44 48 50 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 19 23 29 34 38 40 43 47 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 16 20 26 31 35 37 40 44 46 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT